9/11: Osama bin Laden's Spectacular Miscalculation | He is Dead or Alive Just Confused ?

Thick smoke rises over the New York City skyline after the World Trade Center towers were downed by terrorists on September 11, 2001. Nineteen men hijacked four passenger planes that day in an attack orchestrated by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Two of the planes were intentionally crashed into the two World Trade Center towers. Another crashed into the Pentagon. The fourth crashed in a field near Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 people were killed.

Like the assault on Pearl Harbor, another pivot occasion in American history, 9/11 was an extraordinary strategic triumph for America's foes. Yet, in both these cases the strategic achievement of the assaults was not coordinated by key triumphs. A remarkable converse.


The Japanese scored an imperative triumph at Pearl Harbor, however the assault maneuvered the United States into World War II and after four years Japan was in remains, absolutely crushed.

Likewise, al Qaeda's assaults leaving the sky blue sky 15 years back, on Tuesday morning September 11, 2001, were an incredible stun to Americans and, without a doubt, to a great part of the world: Almost 3,000 dead; numerous several billions of dollars of harm to the US economy, and the stun of the world's lone superpower being gone up against by a generally little fear monger bunch, al Qaeda. Not since the British had torched the White House in 1814 just about two centuries prior had America's adversaries succeeded in assaulting the mainland United States.

For so long the two incredible seas of the Atlantic and the Pacific had shielded America from its adversaries, however no more.

Two men hide as a dust cloud from the broken down building conceals lower Manhattan.

However, for all their strategic achievement the 9/11 assaults fizzled deliberately and, at last, accomplished definitely the opposite Osama canister Laden had planned.

There are, obviously, contrasts between the post-World War II period and the post 9/11 time. The long haul repercussions of Pearl Harbor was not just an unequivocal Allied triumph in the war additionally many years of American authority and predominance.

After its underlying achievement in Afghanistan taking after 9/11, triumph was not conclusive for the United States. Rather, American strengths kept on being at war with various shadowy jihadist bunches, most as of late ISIS, and this now appears like a semi perpetual situation that could continue well past the following administration.

At the point when Congress passed the Authorization for the Use of Military Force quickly after the 9/11 assaults, nobody could have envisioned this approval would keep on being the premise for American wars that continue 10 years and a half later.
Bin Laden's hope
Osama container Laden intensely trusted that assaulting the United States would make weight on American pioneers to decrease their backing for Middle Eastern administrations. Receptacle Laden trusted that without that American backing the Arab administrations would fall and would be supplanted by Taliban-style rulers. 

Specifically, canister Laden needed to put weight on the United States to haul its troops out of Saudi Arabia. Surely, container Laden's main political objective was to topple the Saudi imperial family. 

On a video that was discharged four weeks after 9/11, canister Laden put forth his first open expression since the assaults on New York and Washington, saying "neither America nor the general population who live in it will long for security before we live it in Palestine, and not before all the unbeliever armed forces leave the place where there is Muhammad [Saudi Arabia]." 

The video was inadequately coordinated, as it turned out on October 7, 2001, that day the United States started its air battle against Taliban and al Qaeda focuses in Afghanistan. 


After two months the Taliban was totally steered from Afghanistan and inside another couple of weeks those key individuals from al Qaeda who had survived the exceptional American airstrikes were escaping to neighboring Pakistan and Iran.

Gambling on weakness
Container Laden appallingly misconceived the conceivable American reaction to the 9/11 assaults since he toiled under the hallucination that the United States was frail. In his first TV meeting on CNN in 1997, canister Laden guaranteed the United States was a paper tiger, indicating the American withdrawals from Vietnam in the mid 1970s, Lebanon in the mid 1980s and from Somalia in 1993 as proof of the United States' disappearing power. Canister Laden told CNN, "The despite everything us supposes and gloats that it has this sort of force even after all these progressive annihilations in Vietnam, Beirut ... furthermore, Somalia." 

Oddly, canister Laden trusted that al Qaeda's assaults on New York and Washington would bring about an American withdrawal from the Middle East. Rather, the United States immediately toppled the Taliban and al Qaeda - "the base" in Arabic - lost the best base it had ever had in Afghanistan. 

In the years after the 9/11 assaults the United States not just did not decrease its impact in the Middle East, but rather it additionally settled or added to huge bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. What's more, obviously, it additionally involved both Afghanistan and Iraq. Container Laden's strategic triumph on 9/11 ended up being a staggering vital lemon. 

Since 9/11 the CIA has dispensed with numerous many al Qaeda's pioneers in automaton strikes. The CIA additionally gave the leads that inevitably prompted the passing of canister Laden, when US Navy SEALs attacked his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. 

In the mean time, al Qaeda has not possessed the capacity to strike the United States again after 9/11. 


A letter composed by an al Qaeda part nine months after 9/11 that was tended to Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the operational administrator of the September 11 assaults, gives a feeling of how much the assaults had reverse discharges: "Consider all the lethal and progressive catastrophes that have tormented us amid a time of close to six months. ... Today we are encountering one mishap after another and have gone from setback to calamity."

Strategic disaster
In 2004 Abu Musab al Suri, a Syrian jihadist who had known receptacle Laden since the late 1980s, discharged on the Internet a past filled with the jihadist development in which he depicted the vital fiasco that had immersed the Taliban and al Qaeda after 9/11: "America devastated the Islamic Emirate [of the Taliban] in Afghanistan, which had turned into the asylum for the mujahideen. ...The jihad development rose to greatness in the 1960s, and proceeded through the '70s and '80s, and brought about the ascent of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, however it was devastated after 9/11." 

In spite of the way that after 9/11 it was evident to al Qaeda insiders that their association had taken an awful beating, Saif al-Adel, one of the gathering's military commandants, clarified in a 2005 meeting that the strikes on New York and Washington were, actually, a maliciously astute plan to incite the United States into committing errors: "Such strikes will constrain the individual to complete irregular acts and incite him to commit genuine and now and again deadly errors. ...The main response was the attack of Afghanistan." 

There is no confirmation, in any case, that before 9/11 al Qaeda's pioneers made any arrangements for an American attack of Afghanistan. They arranged rather just for conceivable US journey rocket assaults by emptying their preparation camps. 

Obviously, making astounding mistakes amid a war is a right that all sides appreciate. George W. Bramble's choice to attack Iraq in mid 2003 will most likely rank as one of the best outside strategy disappointments in American history and it's difficult to envision that this misfortune would ever have been embraced whenever other than in the result of 9/11, when the American open was amiable to what the Bush organization was offering as a speedy area war in the Middle East that would shorten psychological oppression. 


The justifications for the Iraq War that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass devastation and that he was united in some way with al Qaeda were, obviously add up to rubbish.

Rise of ISIS
More awful, the attack itself prompted the production of al Qaeda in Iraq in 2004, which is the guardian association of what is currently ISIS. 

At the point when ISIS initially increased huge ground in Iraq and Syria in 2014, it concentrated totally on its activities there and urged its abroad devotees to join the jihad in the Middle East. 

In 2015, ISIS moved its methodology, assaulting on an extensive scale outside Iraq and Syria. The gathering guaranteed obligation regarding the bringing down of the Russian Metrojet conveying 224 travelers and team on October 31 in the Sinai in Egypt. Two weeks after the Metrojet shelling, a group of ISIS aggressors assaulted numerous areas in Paris. 

This denoted a purported shift by ISIS to coordinating or inducing operations against the West, however it likewise underlined ISIS' ambiguous procedure. 

ISIS' principle objective is to present itself as the Islamic State that it has named itself, the gatekeeper of a sweeping caliphate that is both a philosophical and a geographic element. Be that as it may, by assaulting Western targets ISIS has joined a worldwide coalition against it, which is currently altogether disassembling the ISIS caliphate. 

After ISIS assaulted France in November 2015, the French instantly expanded their airstrikes on ISIS targets. 

Taking after ISIS' assaults at Istanbul air terminal in June 2016, the Turkish armed force assaulted ISIS focuses inside Syria, rapidly taking the city of Jarablus. 

ISIS' assaults inside Turkey additionally brought about a Turkish clampdown on the stream of numerous a huge number of ISIS "remote contenders," every one of whom traveled Turkey while in transit to join the gathering in Syria. 

ISIS ought to have comprehended that provocative assaults against Western targets would just open up the war against it. As ahead of schedule as summer 2014, after the homicide by ISIS of the American writer James Foley, the United States significantly expanded the quantity of airstrikes against the gathering and activated a coalition of similarly invested countries to join the counter ISIS coalition. 

As indicated by U.S. Headquarters (CENTCOM), countries that have led strikes against ISIS - notwithstanding the United States - are: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. 

ISIS' psychological oppressor assaults in the West are undermining its general procedure, which is reminiscent of the error al Qaeda made on 9/11, which was to mistake strategic accomplishment for key triumph. 

In fact, as indicated by both Gen. David Petraeus, previous US instructing general in Iraq, and Gen Joseph Votel, the officer of CENTCOM, it's entirely conceivable that Mosul, which is the key city that ISIS holds in Iraq, may tumble to Iraqi strengths before the end of President Barack Obama's term in January 2017. 

From a simply American viewpoint, when Obama was nearing the end of his second term, the danger from al Qaeda, ISIS and comparative gatherings had subsided essentially from its high point on 9/11. 


In the previous decade and a half since 9/11, 94 Americans have been murdered in the United States by jihadist fear mongers. Stunning and unfortunate as these assaults have been, regardless they could not hope to compare to al Qaeda's homicide of just about 3,000 individuals on the morning of 9/11.